… Looking ahead, the global economy faces significant challenges. “That's simply not consistent w/ a recession, where historically the economy is consistently LOSING jobs. Sounding a similar note: “The economy created 1.1 million jobs in Q2,” BRIAN DEESE, head of the National Economic Council, wrote in a Sunday afternoon Twitter thread. … Most of the data that look at right now continues to be strong.” And I would, you know, warn that we should characterizing that as a recession. “And even if that number is negative, we are not in a recession now. “I do want to emphasize: What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy,” Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. The Biden administration is prebutting the expected bad GDP news. It would be the second straight quarter of decline - which is often seen as signaling a recession. On Thursday, the GDP numbers for the second quarter will drop, and economists expect they’ll show a decline of 1% to 2%.
That uncertainty heightens the risk that they’ll either do too much - triggering a severe recession - or too little, prolonging red-hot inflation and making it harder to conquer.” The high stakes: Whatever the Fed’s decision, it'll be made “without a clear line of sight at their target. And Covid cases are skyrocketing again even as America fully reopens for business.” Supply chains are improving, but manufacturing output is slowing. Consumers say they’re unhappy about the economy but are still spending even amid the aggressive price spikes. “But Powell and other Fed policymakers are making that crucial decision based on data that lately has been so confusing and contradictory that it’s hard for them to know where the economy actually stands.”Ĭase in point: “Economic growth is projected by some analysts to have been negative in the second quarter of the year, but hiring is strong and the jobless rate sits near historic lows. “Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell has vowed to follow the data in deciding how high to crank up interest rates to crush the worst inflation surge in four decades,” Victoria Guida writes this morning. That would be the fourth rate increase this year. After the most recent inflation numbers, most observers expect a hike of. On Wednesday, the Fed will meet and make a decision on just how much to raise interest rates. Last month’s report showed the Consumer Confidence Index at its lowest level since February 2021 and the Expectations Index - “consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions,” per the Conference Board - at its lowest level since 2013. On Tuesday, we get new consumer confidence numbers, a measure which has fallen for two consecutive months. THIS WEEK’S BIG STORYLINE IN WASHINGTON - If there’s one thing the White House, economists and basically everyone who thinks about money can agree on, it’s that this is going to be a big week for economic news. TOMORROW - “These former Trump advisers are trying to do the impossible: Make Trumpism about the future,” by Meridith McGraw
… Friday: New inflation numbers released. The annual Congressional Baseball Game is scheduled for Nats Park at 7:05 p.m. … Thursday: New Q2 GDP numbers are announced. … Wednesday: The Fed meets to decide whether to raise interest rates, and JEROME POWELL holds a presser. At 3 p.m., DONALD TRUMP gives the keynote at the America First Agenda Summit, his first appearance in D.C. … Tuesday: The Conference Board releases new consumer confidence numbers. MIKE PENCE speaks at the Heritage Foundation, laying out an agenda for a possible 2024 run. The Senate holds a cloture vote on the CHIPS Act, setting up a possible final vote on Tuesday or Wednesday. THE WEEK - Today: The America First Agenda Summit convenes in Washington ( here’s the schedule). | Scott Eisen/Getty Images DRIVING THE DAY The Biden administration is bracing for bad GDP figures ahead of a what's expected to be a a busy week of economic news.
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